Tuesday, September 15, 2009

TSX hits my target! Now what?

All the way back in May I made the bold prognostication (read: wild guess) that the TSX should be valued at between 11,400 and 11,500 - up from about 10,200 at the time. I hazarded a guess that the TSX might get to that level by the end of 2009, however it decided not to wait until the end of the year, closing at 11,496 today.

In my previous post I suggested that the market was undervalued and would be pricing in 2009 TSX earnings of about $575 per share. I then applied a long-run average PE multiple of about 20 to arrive at my call of 11,400-11,500.

Current estimates for 2010 corporate profits are in a range of 5-10% growth. My own model of corporate profits is spitting out growth of 30% (which I don't quite believe) - so lets say TSX EPS of around $630-$750. Since so much depends on the multiple applied to these profits, i've made a quick and dirty attempt at incorporating a PE equation based on short and long-term interest rates and nominal GDP growth into my Canadian economy model. The model derived PE suggests an average multiple of between 17-18 over the next year. Applying this multiple to the above range of forward earnings gives a fair value for the TSX of between 11,400 and 13,500, suggesting a market going sideways or a market about to pop by about 20%. A big range to be sure, but perhaps that is consistent with the amount of uncertainty in stock prices.

Could I have arrived at this range by pulling numbers randomly out of a hat? Probably, but what fun would that be?


Stephen Gordon said...

In answer to the question in the title:

You cash in the huge bet you made on the basis of your forecast, buy some island in the Caribbean and spend the rest of your days leading a lavishly sumptuous lifestyle.

I'm sure your wife would agree with me on this one.

Shock Minus Control said...

Ha ha ha...if only.