Real GDP (quarter-over-quarter annualized) came in at -3.4% for the second quarter, just a shade better than my forecast of -3.5% (I've been having problems with my forecast link not working so I've taken it down until I can figure out a better way to link to it -you'll have to just trust me on this one.)
For whatever reason there was quite a bit of (correct) consensus on the growth prospects for the 2nd quarter:
Actual: - 3.4
WCI (Stephen Gordon): -3.4%
BoC: -3.5
SMC (Me): -3.5
BMO: -3.3
RBC: -3.2
CIBC: -3.1
TD: -2.2
Scotia: -2.0
The one thing the above list ignores is vintage (which I'm too lazy to dig up right now). The last time I made a forecast was sometime in early July, while others like RBC and TD were mid-June.
Congrats to Stephen Gordon for nailing the number right on the head (I know yours was more of a preliminary estimate based on available 2nd quarter data, but still, kudos.)
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Meh - I was using July's data, and it'll probably be revised away.
It would appear that economic forecasters aren't always wrong.
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