Sunday, April 12, 2009

Forecast update

I've updated the Canadian quarterly forecast ( see link in upper right corner) to reflect the weakness of incoming data. I've jumped on board with David Wolf and Kevin Page, forecasting a contraction in Q1 of 8.2%. I also expect Q2 to be significantly worse at -3.8% before the economy begins a recovery sometime in Q3-Q4 as a result of fiscal and monetary stimulus. This forecast is considerably more bearish than the Bay Street consensus (a good thing?).

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