Forecast Update

I've updated my 2009-2010 forecast to incorporate actuals from Q4/2008. Not much has changed, I've lowered the forecast for growth slightly and increased the expected unemployment rate. It remains a very difficult forecasting environment, especially in the sort of monetary policy driven model that I'm employing.

I'll benchmark my forecasts to the pros on Bay Street once Q1 GDP is released, that should be interesting.

(click to enlarge image)