Friday, January 2, 2009

Canadian Econoblogosphere Forecasting Contest 2009

The fellas over at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative have thrown down the proverbial gauntlet - here are the rules:

1. Unconditional point-forecasts only, for 5 macroeconomic variables: CPI, Unemployment Rate, US/CAN Exchange Rate, BoC Target, TSX (My forecasts are the product of a small-scale model so I'll throw in a real GDP forecast as well).
2. Only those who have made a forecast will be allowed to laugh at others' forecasts in January 2010.
3. No prize for the best forecast (other than bragging rights).
4. "Best" forecast is defined as that which minimises the following loss function:
Loss = sum of absolute value of [(forecast-actual)/latest available end of 2008 actual].

Here is what I think is in store for 2009:

CPI Inflation: 0.6%
Unemployment Rate: 7.1%
US/CAN Exchange Rate: 94 cents (with bias downward)
BoC Target: 0.75% (just to be different)
TSX: 8780
Real GDP Growth: -1.7%

That was fun, great idea guys!


Anonymous said...

exchange rate: parity
CPI: 2.0%
boc target: 0.5%
unemployment rate 7.6%
TSX: 9500
GDP: +0.1%

Phillip Huggan said...

guesses are mine