tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5970717323327554723.post6895481451688076983..comments2023-09-08T04:48:35.871-07:00Comments on Shock Minus Control: Forecasting BC Economic GrowthMaggie Mayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08822013439171121624noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5970717323327554723.post-77730331851912450212010-01-07T06:55:11.228-08:002010-01-07T06:55:11.228-08:00Influence can be defined as the power exerted over...Influence can be defined as the power exerted over the minds and behavior of others. A power that can affect, persuade and cause changes to someone or something. In order to influence people, you first need to discover what is already influencing them. What makes them tick? What do they care about? We need some leverage to work with when we’re trying to change how people think and behave.<br /><br />www.onlineuniversalwork.comUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05819924837927570399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5970717323327554723.post-857658662105008642008-12-08T16:06:00.000-08:002008-12-08T16:06:00.000-08:00In BC it'll be all about the housing. A colossal ...In BC it'll be all about the housing. A colossal loss of paper wealth on the way, and a large slice of debt stressed citizens.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5970717323327554723.post-68457655194282758412008-12-08T07:17:00.000-08:002008-12-08T07:17:00.000-08:00I think there is sufficient stimulus in VANOC spen...I think there is sufficient stimulus in VANOC spending that growth in BC will stay above zero, but there is a strong possibility of growth coming in a lot lower than the 1.3-1.4% in my forecast.Maggie Mayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08822013439171121624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5970717323327554723.post-85467594645703761952008-12-07T22:17:00.000-08:002008-12-07T22:17:00.000-08:00I'm with Marc - if you update your forecast to ref...I'm with Marc - if you update your forecast to reflect your concerns about B.C.'s reliance on construction and the cratering real estate market, I suspect you'll have a better forecast.Declanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07930743440194279349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5970717323327554723.post-58363468018243871502008-12-07T20:18:00.000-08:002008-12-07T20:18:00.000-08:00Here's what worries me: a reporter I know was talk...Here's what worries me: a reporter I know was talking to a developer at a Christmas party a few days ago. The developer needs to close on $400 M in condos by the end of the year, ie properties that were presold at 10-20% upfront, but now buyers are looking at closing at a 20% loss over what they paid with tremendous downside going into 2009. And many did not just buy one; they bought three. So the developer wonders whether the walk-away rate will be 5%, 10%, 25% or more, and whether they will need to put a large value of condos on the market in January so that they can make their own cash flow. <BR/><BR/>Just an anecdote but one strand of an increasingly common storm, and the potential for a seismic drop in home values that will have all kinds of adverse balance sheet impacts. Add to that construction jobs finishing and no work for the workers after that, and finance constraints. And and and ...<BR/><BR/>So I'm pretty gloomy about BC in 2009, and think most of the forecasters out there (who have a pretty bad track record to begin with) are in denial about how bad this storm could get.Marchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03872068191061565227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5970717323327554723.post-35954574395526012912008-12-07T16:36:00.000-08:002008-12-07T16:36:00.000-08:00I'm concerned about how imbalances in the BC econo...I'm concerned about how imbalances in the BC economy (too much reliance on construction) will unravel as home prices cool. <BR/><BR/>Thanks for the welcome and thanks for dropping by. I'm an economist working in consulting in BC and that's about all I can say. (not trying to be mysterious but rather i'm not sure about my firm's blogging policy)Maggie Mayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08822013439171121624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5970717323327554723.post-33879166261707745972008-12-07T15:13:00.000-08:002008-12-07T15:13:00.000-08:00And down to 0.6% as of Friday. And only of them ca...And down to 0.6% as of Friday. And only of them called for an actual recession for 2009. BC's outlook is pretty grim; the stats have only just begun to move in a negative direction but there is a potentially seismic shift in real estate about to unfold.<BR/><BR/>Remember BC's real GDP dropped 6% in 1982. The potential for a drop that is larger than Canada's in 2009 is more than 50-50. I think this other shoe will drop in the Jan-Feb time frame and will make for an interesting, if gloomy, backdrop to the election.<BR/><BR/>Oh, and welcome to the blogosphere. Who are you?Marchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03872068191061565227noreply@blogger.com