tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5970717323327554723.post4552003666251628694..comments2023-09-08T04:48:35.871-07:00Comments on Shock Minus Control: This is bad newsMaggie Mayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08822013439171121624noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5970717323327554723.post-86665180523429518652009-04-07T11:18:00.000-07:002009-04-07T11:18:00.000-07:00Commodity prices collapsed the quarter before Q1 2...Commodity prices collapsed the quarter before Q1 2008. I don't see public sector spending contracting much/any and we (under a Republican Harper government that is the last to preceed massive boomer healthcare cost increases) are running a 4% of GDP deficit.<BR/>A 9% year-over-year contraction is impossible given a weak dollar. It would mean private sector GDP contracts almost 20%. Maybe in southern Ontario if the dollar was still strong. The flight to USD quality has saved Harper's hostile-to-the-future government for now.Phillip Huggannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5970717323327554723.post-3435609728798566202009-03-26T09:30:00.000-07:002009-03-26T09:30:00.000-07:00But at best, your or any other model is going to b...But at best, your or any other model is going to be based on data in the post-war era, so by definition you will not be able to generate results that are worse than the worst recession in that era. For a collapse in asset prices on this scale, we have to go back the Great Depression.<BR/><BR/>James Galbraith has a good critique of current modeling in his testimony to Congress last week. Well worth a read.Marchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03872068191061565227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5970717323327554723.post-38145881667711724412009-03-26T09:12:00.000-07:002009-03-26T09:12:00.000-07:00Yeah, its a little frustrating. Extraordinary clai...Yeah, its a little frustrating. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.Maggie Mayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08822013439171121624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5970717323327554723.post-20985595874652925172009-03-26T09:10:00.000-07:002009-03-26T09:10:00.000-07:00This is the thing, isn't it? Unless we see a model...This is the thing, isn't it? Unless we see a model or some story that gets those numbers, it's hard to tell how plausible they are.Stephen Gordonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00362651421257266909noreply@blogger.com